Local election polls: Where red wall fury could hammer Boris into the polls | Politics | News


Boris Johnson will privately brace for losses in the May 5 local election as voters get their first real chance to have a say in the party’s doorstep scandal. Senior officials fear many are voting with their feet and turning their backs on the Tories when choosing who to elect to their local authority. It is something Labor is counting on if they hope to make gains in the red wall areas lost to the Tories in the last round of voting.

With Election Day just two weeks away, sources say the Tories could lose hundreds of seats across the country. Even party chairman Oliver Dowden admitted the polls would be “difficult”.

Qadar Zada, Labor leader in Dudley, said there was “furor” over the scandal and it will likely cost the government in the May 5 vote.

He said: ‘I’m talking to people on the doorstep and they’re very angry they’ve missed out on things that no amount of money can ever replace. They feel cheated. People see lies after lies and they’re fed up.

And the latest polling data suggests he might be right, with new research from Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now estimating Labor could win up to 835 seats in the May 5 vote.

READ MORE: Wakefield by-election polls: Will Labor win back its seat?

A poll by think tank More in Common also found the Tories could struggle on Election Day. The survey found the Tories fell to 38% of Red Wall voters, down from 56% in the last general election in 2019.

The same poll also found that 61% of the public believe Mr Johnson should quit because of the crisis, and that even in some ‘blue wall’ areas the party could have problems with voters turning to Labout and the Lib Dems.

Elsewhere, data from YouGov shows that the Labor Party remains in the lead with 39% of the vote (+1 compared to the previous poll of April 13 and 14) against 33% for the Conservatives.

While another poll from the firm also shows that on a scale of zero to 10, voters scored a rather average 3.45 when asked how likely they were to vote Conservative in next elections.

Speaking to the Independent, polling guru Sir John Curtice said the party’s doorstep could deliver a hammer blow to Mr Johnson’s electoral chances.

But he added: ‘I think Partygate significantly damaged the position of the Conservatives, although it did not lead to the Tory vote collapsing.’

Despite the furor over the fines, many still believe the Conservatives are the best bet to deal with other issues currently plaguing the nation, including support for Ukraine and tackling the cost of living crisis.

Tory peer and pollster Robert Hayward told the Guardian: ”It’s Partygate against a low council tax. That’s basically what the battle is.

Back in Dudley, Patrick Harley, the leader of the Tory council, hopes the scandal won’t affect his position too much.

He said, “The doorstep is. . . more positive than I would have thought after six months of headlines from Westminster.

“The media is in a frenzy but when I talk to people here it’s different from what you see on TV. Russia would think we are crazy if we changed leaders in this time of crisis. »

Although he admitted his shock when his party won 12 seats in last year’s vote, he said he was confident he could keep his seat, adding: “A good result would be to keep our seats and to take one or two, a bad result would be to lose a couple of seats to Labour.


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